Former President Trump announced today that he will be holding a rally in Madison Square Garden (yes, that Madison Square Garden) on October 27. This comes after Trump also announced an upcoming rally in Coachella, California. Coachella is situated in California’s 25th CD, which voted D+15 just two years ago. During a rally in Scranton, Pennsylvania on Wednesday, Trump said “We’re going to make a play for New York.” If Trump wins in New York or California, the author will eat his shorts.

A new NYT/Siena poll was released on Monday. While some Democrats have been optimistic about their chances in the state, the new polling suggests their optimism may be misplaced. Trump has opened up a lead of thirteen points in the state. While this is only a single poll, the results are far beyond the margin of error and should signal to Democrats that their money may be better spent elsewhere.

Democratic Senator Jon Tester is locked in a fierce battle to keep his Montana Senate seat. Republican Tim Sheehy has opened up a sizable gap in the polling, and things have been looking grim for Tester. The last poll that showed Tester ahead was taken back in August. In 2018, Tester won re-election by a margin of less than four points, and had been polling ahead of his Republican challenger consistently. Democrats should be very worried about their prospects in the Senate, and Tester may want to start looking for jobs elsewhere.