If you’ve been paying attention to the upcoming Presidential election, there’s a good chance you know which states it will come down to. You might be less familiar with the “swing counties” that will decide the swing states that will decide the election. Let’s take it one state at a time:

Arizona: This one will all come down to Maricopa county. Once a Republican stronghold, the county home to Phoenix has been trending blue in recent years. Joe Biden won the county by 2.17% last election, and Harris needs to win here by 2% or more to carry the state.

Michigan: Kent, Saginaw, and Muskegon counties are the largest swing counties in this state. If Trump can win Kent county, he will likely win the state. Winning the other two by a margin of one point or more would also be a strong showing for Trump in this state.

Wisconsin: Kenosha, Racine, and Brown counties will not quite decide the Presidential race in Wisconsin—but they will be close to doing so. While Trump is expected to win all three counties, if Harris flips one or more she would be extremely likely to carry the state. The Democratic strategy here revolves around running up vote totals in Dane and Milwaukee counties to make up for their weakness in smaller, closer counties. It worked in 2020, but will it work in 2024?

Pennsylvania: Bucks, Northhampton, and Erie counties will likely decide who wins the Keystone state. They were the three closest counties in the state in 2020, and Joe Biden won all three. Harris could probably afford a close loss in Erie or Northhampton, but a Trump win in Bucks would likely signal a Trump win in the state.

Georgia: The former President needs the Vice President to perform poorly in Cobb and Gwinnett counties in order to carry the state of Georgia. Hillary Clinton won both counties by less than six points, while Joe Biden won both by double digits. Harris needs to replicate Biden’s performance in these counties if she intends to replicate his results in the state.

Nevada: Democrats typically only win Clark and Washoe counties, but big enough wins there are sufficient to carry the state. If Trump can keep Clark under six points and Washoe under two, he has a pretty good chance at winning the state.

North Carolina: New Hanover is the largest swing county in this state. Harris would likely need to win this county by over three points, and improve by three to four points in densely populated counties like Mecklenberg, Wake, and Guilford to carry the state.

Texas: Tarrant, Collin, and Denton counties will be instrumental in determining who wins the state of Texas in November. Joe Biden won Tarrant county by 0.2% in 2020 and lost Collin and Denton by over four points. For Kamala Harris to pull off a political earthquake and win Texas, she probably needs to win all three of these counties and run up the score in metro areas.

Florida: Duval, Pinellas, and Seminole counties will shape the way Florida votes in the 2024 Presidential election. Joe Biden won all three in 2020, but each by less than four points. If Harris can win Pinellas by two and the other by six or more, she has a good chance of taking Florida and winning the White House.