Dan Osborn, an independent candidate for Senate in Nebraska, is facing off against Republican incumbent Deb Fischer. Osborn has polled surprisingly well thus far, leading in the two most recent polls of the race. A new Bullfinch poll has Osborn up five points—a bad sign for Fischer. Osborn is a former labor leader who served in the United States Navy and Nebraska Army National Guard. He has refused to state which party he would caucus with if elected, and has even suggested he may not caucus with either party.

This race could be instrumental in determining partisan control of the Senate. If Osborn wins and refuses to caucus with either party, the Democrats could maintain their Senate majority with a win in two of the following four states*: Ohio, Montana, Texas, and Florida. If three of the four go red, an Osborn win would give the Dems 49 seats and the GOP 50. This would mean that Republicans could not pass anything via a party-line vote, unless Trump wins the Presidential election**. If Harris wins the Presidential election and the Senate is 49-50, Osborn joining with Democratic Senators would lead to Tim Walz casting tiebreaking votes that would advance Harris’s agenda.

The independent candidate is looking to shake up the national political environment, and is looking like he just might pull off the upset.

*Assuming Democrats win in the other Senate races they are favored to win, which is quite likely

**The Vice President is President of the Senate and may cast a vote when the chamber is tied. In this scenario, J.D. Vance would cast tie-breaking votes in service of Trump’s agenda