On Thursday, CNN dropped a bombshell report about Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. Robinson’s previously-floundering campaign is all but completely dead now; the question is, will this have an impact on the 2024 Presidential Race?

Let’s start with the data we have before we start guessing. FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate polls in North Carolina give Trump a lead of 0.1%—a virtual tie. RealClearPolling has the same result. In a race this tight, everything matters.

It is possible that the polling is underestimating the Donald as it did in 2016 and 2020. However, the polling could just as well be underestimating Democrats. Remember the “Red Wave” that was supposed to come in 2022?

Based on the data we have and the volatility of polling, it is entirely conceivable that Robinson costs Trump the state (and the Presidency). Will he? We won’t know until November.