It’s easy to feel overwhelmed and confused with the amount of information available online regarding the upcoming Presidential election—I’m here to make sure you aren’t. Here are the states in play, in order of importance:

Maine’s 2nd CD: This technically isn’t a state, but it’s important nonetheless. In 2016 and 2020, this District went for Donald Trump by not-insignificant margins. However, a recent University of New Hampshire poll shows Vice President Harris ahead by five points. It very likely won’t decide the election, but it could indicate what type of night each candidate will have. Trump wants a big win here, and a loss of less than five points (or a win) for Harris is bad news for the Republicans.

Nebraska’s 2nd CD: Ok, this is the last Congressional District. I promise. Biden won this District by six-and-a-half points in 2020, and Clinton narrowly lost it in 2016. This one should go to Harris, just as ME-02 should go to Trump. This district is not exactly a top priority for most pollsters, but recent numbers show Harris ahead by a somewhat comfortable margin.

Florida: The former quintessential swing state has become a Republican stronghold in recent years. It went for Trump in both ’16 and ’20, and the 2022 Midterms saw Republicans make massive gains in the state. Incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis won re-election by nearly 20 points. This state is expected to go to Trump, but the most recent 538 average shows the former President ahead by only four points.

Texas: Long-viewed as Republicans’ California, the Lone Star State has narrowed significantly in recent years. 2020 saw Trump hold onto the state by only 5.6 points. It was closer than Ohio, Iowa, and Virginia, which are all historical swing states. Texas is a testament to the electoral impact Donald Trump has had on the Republican Party—more support in the Rust Belt and less in the Sun Belt. This state is a Trump must-win, especially now that there are 40 electoral votes up for grabs, as opposed to the 38 available in 2020 and 2016.

Nevada: The home of Las Vegas is always a hotly contested state when it comes time to pick a President. While it is extremely close, it only offers 6 electoral votes. It will likely not make or break either candidate’s path to victory. In 2022, Nevada elected Republican Joe Lombardo Governor, ousting Democrat Steve Sisolak. Polling in this state is tight, but it’s likely a slight Trump advantage here.

Arizona: John McCain’s home state has become one of the tightest in the nation. It voted for Trump in 2016 by less than four points, and President Biden was able to narrowly flip it in 2020. It was the second-closest state in that election. In 2022, Arizona continued its Democratic streak, sending Mark Kelly back to the Senate for a full term and giving Katie Hobbs the Governorship. Polling here currently shows Harris and Trump in a dead heat. It’s not a must-win for either candidate, but if one were to win here and in Wisconsin, we can probably expect them to win the election.

Wisconsin: One of the shock flips in 2016 that catapulted Trump into the White House, Wisconsin will be instrumental in determining the winner of this election. It’s voted for the winner in every election dating back to 2008, the longest active streak (tied with Michigan and Pennsylvania). Trump doesn’t need this state to win. Harris doesn’t either, but her path narrows significantly without it.

North Carolina: Perhaps the state that has seen the largest change since Vice President Harris replaced President Biden as the Democratic nominee, North Carolina is a must-win for the Trump campaign. Recent polling has shown the two virtually dead even, with a slight advantage for Trump. If Trump were to lose North Carolina, his electoral map would look very grim.

Michigan: Another Rust Belt state, this one is a must-win for the Harris campaign. It’s also the most Democratic-friendly state on this list. A win of less than one point or a loss here would be disastrous for the Vice President. Trump doesn’t need this state, but if he gets it, Harris will be completely kneecapped and have an extremely difficult time making up the lost votes. Current polling shows the Vice President leading by three points.

Georgia: A state Biden was able to flip for the first time since 1992, the Trump strategy runs directly through this state. Polls show what amounts to a dead heat here, and its sixteen electoral votes are a highly coveted prize. If Harris is able to engage the Clinton-Biden coalition that made this state competitive in 2016 and a Democratic win in 2020, she could cut off Trump’s easiest path to victory.

Pennsylvania: Both candidates essentially need this state to win the Electoral College. If Harris wins it, all she needs is Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s second Congressional District and she will have the votes to be President. If Trump wins it, all he needs is Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. Both campaigns will be spending massive amounts of money and resources in the Keystone State in an attempt to guarantee their ascension to the Presidency.

And that’s the basics! Both candidates have extremely realistic paths to victory. If I had to decide today, I’d probably say I’d rather be Vice President Harris. She has consistently increased the gap between her and former President Trump, and if she keeps it up she could be heading towards a significant victory in November. However, her “honeymoon period” is likely nearly over, and we can expect polls to get tighter as we head towards November. It’s anyone’s election, and all we can do now is wait.