9/21/24: After Mr. Trump’s less than stellar debate performance, my projection has moved further in favor of the Vice President. As of today, I think she sweeps the Blue Wall and picks up a handful of other swing states to boot. Post-debate polling has shown a definite advantage for Harris on the state level, and the Mark Robinson scandal helps her over the finish line in NC.

8/30/24: Quite a map! Harris extends on Biden’s margins in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin while losing Nevada and Georgia. Trump is barely able to hang on to North Carolina and Maine’s second Congressional District.